Newsletter Summary Breadth Cycles Equities Commodities Currencies Bonds ETF Trading

6/5/09 - Full Moon high?

Executive Summary

Weekly Update
Last week I expected the SPX to make a high on Monday and decline back to 875 but we held 910 and moved towards that elusive 944 target by the end of the week.
We have exceeded the 944 level briefly raising the possibility of reaching the 1007 level eventually, but we should pull back this week nonetheles and
decline back to the 875 area by Thursday
Plan B has the SPX holding the 1998 lows near 925 and moving towards the Fib extension of 970 by Friday.

The Full Moon of June 7th will probably be at least a short term high, which could also turn into a nasty decline towards the triple witching expiration week of June 19th. The New Moon of June 22nd is near a Cardinal Date and we could see extreme volatility and even panic selling into a typical low 3 days before the New Moon under such conditions.
Most indicators are mixed but the StochRSI left a divergence suggesting a 2-3 day pull back to the 1998 lows near 925, like we saw at the end of previous 13 trading day rallies since the March 6th low. It will take a break of that level and the trend line just below before we can decline to the February highs near 875, possibly by Thursday to signal a more lasting change of trend than we have seen so far.

Wave Count
The March 6th low was most likely a Wave B low and we are now completing a Wave C rally that will finish Wave 4 up from the November 21st low. Wave A up from the November low went 203 points in 6 weeks, Wave B went down 277 pts and took 8 weeks, and Wave C has now gone 281 points in 13 weeks and is probably complete or will complete by June 8th near the 9-11-01 lows and January highs of 944 which is where Wave C is close to Wave B.

Daily Update
Most indicators turned bearish on Friday but the SPX held the trend line and we could move up once more to test the highs on Monday morning for a Full Moon high before we pull back into Tuesday from the StochRSI divergence discussed below.
The Tick lines are headed lower and may be turning up here, but the blue Nyse Tick is still short of oversold and suggesting a pull back to the 1998 lows of 925 or lower by mid week to get them oversold enough. There is a geometric target of 958 on Monday morning, and if we break above and hold the 950 level we can not rule out a Fib extension of this rally to the 970 level by Friday.

Breadth Summation Indexes (BSI)


Next Day Forecasting Accuracy
Forecasting the close can be difficult at times, and you can use my recent performance on the right as a guide to the accuracy of my current vote, but I may skip voting if too cautious and my vote for Monday is bearish but cautious 		Firebird - Your Score: 58.3% [G100 Ranking]
Last 22 sessions: corrects=7, incorrect=4, omissions over limit=1.
SessionOpinionS&P 500Score
06-05-2009omission 1/10down-
06-04-2009omission 2/10up-
06-03-2009bearishdown
06-02-2009bearishup
06-01-2009bullishup

How to use the Charts  -  See Live Charts updated intraday  -  Read Weekly Update with Charts updated daily

Short and Medium Term Market Breadth


The Ticks are more bullish but the red Nasdaq line is still behaving strangely

The Put/Call lines turned bearish but are stalling below the middle line

The Momentum indicators are turning down but the Nasdaq 100 is still bullish

Click for Printable Chart

courtesy of StockCharts.com

The Volatility is in a bullish trend but forming a possible double bottom

The 5 day Trin or Arms index turned bearish but are stalling

 Click here for Chart
Click for Printable Chart

The New Highs and New Lows are bullish

 Click here for Chart
Click for Printable Chart

The McClellans turned bullish again but remain overbought

 Click here for Chart
Click for Printable Chart

Stocks on a Point and Figure buy signal are turning bullish again in overbought

 Click here for Chart
Click for Printable Chart

Stocks above their 50/200 day MA are turning bullish again in overbought

 Click here for Chart
Click for Printable Chart

Cycles and Wave Counting


A look at the last Sell in May of 08

Both of these periods line up almost perfectly with the Saturn retro and direct periods with an 11-12 day difference that also showed up between the lows of March 6, 09 and March 17, 08 and 11-12 days after the Saturn direct date of May 16, 09 is May 27-28th.


Full Moon high and New moon low?

The Full Moon of June 7th will probably be at least a short term high, which could also turn into a nasty decline towards the triple witching expiration week of June 19th. The New Moon of June 22nd is near a Cardinal Date and we could see extreme volatility and even panic selling into a typical low 3 days before the New Moon under such conditions.


courtesy of StockCharts.com

courtesy of StockCharts.com


A Crash alignment for the 2002 and 2008 lows

A good fit is found by aligning the crash lows of July 02 and October 08 with a 60% time scale. The Tick line broke out but was much weaker than in 2003, and the Put/Call showed a lot more skepticism back in 2003, compared to the growing optimism we are seeing since the October 07 lows. Even at the beginning of the 2003-2007 Bull market, the SPX went sideways for two months before it started another move higher, and its unlikely to go much higher now.




The 91 month cycle as a guide

The 91 month cycle is a combination of Prime numbers since it is the 13th repetition of the 7 month cycle, and turns out to be significant as the chart here shows . A closer look at the March 6th low aligned with the 9/11 low 90 months ago shows many similarities and it suggests a decline to the 800 level in June followed by a retest of the highs in July before a decline to new lows by October. A decline to SPX 800 in June certainly fits with the sentiment and would be similar to the correction seen in the 2003 analog at right.



courtesy of StockCharts.com

courtesy of StockCharts.com


The 30 day cycle pattern in the Dow suggests weakness into Triple Witching Expiration

 Click here for Chart
Click for Printable Chart
courtesy of StockCharts.com

Equities


Outlook for Monday is bearish to mixed

Most indicators turned bearish on Friday but the SPX held the trend line and we could move up once more to test the highs on Monday morning for a Full Moon high before we pull back into Tuesday from the StochRSI divergence discussed below.
See the NDX 1 minute chart here and the Dow 1 minute chart here

Click for Printable Chart

courtesy of StockCharts.com



Probable cycle highs early Monday and Friday and low late Tuesday

The Tick lines are headed lower and may be turning up here, but the blue Nyse Tick is still short of oversold and suggesting a pull back to the 1998 lows of 925 or lower by mid week to get them oversold enough. There is a geometric target of 958 on Monday morning, and if we break above and hold the 950 level we can not rule out a Fib extension of this rally to the 970 level by Friday.

Click for Printable Chart

courtesy of StockCharts.com


Outlook for the week of June 12th is mixed to bearish with a divergence

Most indicators are mixed but the StochRSI left a divergence suggesting a 2-3 day pull back to the 1998 lows near 925, like we saw at the end of previous 13 trading day rallies since the March 6th low. It will take a break of that level and the trend line just below before we can decline to the February highs near 875, possibly by Thursday to signal a more lasting change of trend than we have seen so far.
See the NDX 10 minute chart here and the Dow 10 minute chart here

Click for Printable Chart

courtesy of StockCharts.com



Wave C of 4 may be over close to the 9/11 and January highs of 944

The March 6th low was most likely a Wave B low and we are now completing a Wave C rally that will finish Wave 4 up from the November 21st low. Wave A up from the November low went 203 points in 6 weeks, Wave B went down 277 pts and took 8 weeks, and Wave C has now gone 281 points in 13 weeks and is probably complete or will complete by June 8th near the 9-11-01 lows and January highs of 944 which is where Wave C is close to Wave B.

Click for Printable Chart

courtesy of StockCharts.com


Wave 5 should start in June and take us to new lows in 2009

The start of each major wave down since the all time high of October 07 can be seen clearly in the high Tick lines on top and the low Put/Call lines just below, and is confirmed more loosely with the Trin line at the bottom. All indicators are overbought, especially for a bear market, and unless we are starting a new bull market, these readings should send us lower into June and probably to new lows by October. 		Click here for Chart
Click for Printable Chart
courtesy of StockCharts.com


Sentiment for the SPX suggests new lows in 2009

The blue Call buying line is now making a double top near the highest level in years, and is considerably higher than it was the last time the SPX traded near 944 in January, leaving us more vulnerable to a deep decline now than back then. Despite the fact that we keep making deep new lows with each decline, the Call buying remains at higher levels of optimism than at the October 07 highs and will eventually require a significant decline in 2009 to take it back down to the levels seen in 2008.
See the Nasdaq daily chart here and the Dow daily chart here 		Click here for Chart
Click for Printable Chart
courtesy of StockCharts.com


Shanghai should rally into August

The Shanghai has moved up in a fairly clear 5 waves, and will likely pull back to the 2300 area or even to the 200 day MA near 2200 in June, before probably moving back up to test the recent highs or even the 3000 level. China has large reserves and built a lot of new infrastructure for the Olympics that should benefit its economy for decades and it should recover the most in 2009, since it is the manufacturing base of the world. 		Click here for Chart
Click for Printable Chart
courtesy of StockCharts.com


Australian market should pull back into September

The Australian market is struggling with a number of resistance lines just below 4000 and is unlikely to make a higher high before it drops to the 3000-3250 area or worse by September. 		Click here for Chart
Click for Printable Chart
courtesy of StockCharts.com

Commodities

Commodities should pull back in June

Click for Printable Chart

courtesy of StockCharts.com


The CRB should rally into July

Commodities finally broke above the 20 year S/R level near 250 and will probably reach the 280 level by July. 		Click here for Chart
Click for Printable Chart
courtesy of StockCharts.com


Oil should pull back from the high 60's in June

Click for Printable Chart

courtesy of StockCharts.com


Oil should pull back into November

Oil finally broke out of its range and will probably extend the rebound a little more into the high 60's before it pulls back into November. 		Click here for Chart
Click for Printable Chart
courtesy of StockCharts.com



Gold should pull back from the 1000 area in June

Click for Printable Chart

courtesy of StockCharts.com

Gold should rally into July

Gold should test or briefly make new highs by the late July cycle and pull back once more into year end before a large Wave 3 up to the 2000 level and above starts in 2010. 		Click here for Chart
Click for Printable Chart
courtesy of StockCharts.com


Silver should pull back from the 1993 highs near 16 in June

 Click here for Chart
Click for Printable Chart
courtesy of StockCharts.com


Silver should rally into July

Silver has already reached the 1993 highs near 16 and may exceed it briefly by July or make a double top. 		Click here for Chart
Click for Printable Chart
courtesy of StockCharts.com


Gold Miners should decline in June

 Click here for Chart
Click for Printable Chart
courtesy of StockCharts.com


Gold Stocks should head lower into December

Gold stocks are struggling in this last advance and are likely to make a high in May and decline to below the 100 area into the Summer and Fall. 		Click here for Chart
Click for Printable Chart
courtesy of StockCharts.com


Currencies

The US Dollar should rebound to the 0.83 level in June

Click for Printable Chart

courtesy of StockCharts.com


The US Dollar should decline into July

The USD is failing on its third weaker attempt to rally to the 0.90 level and will likely pull back to the 0.77 area by July before it can mount a good rally to the 0.90 to 0.92 level into year end for the 4.3 year cycle high in early 2010. 		Click here for Chart
Click for Printable Chart
courtesy of StockCharts.com


The Yen may break the 100 level briefly before moving up

 Click here for Chart
Click for Printable Chart
courtesy of StockCharts.com


The Yen should rally into September

The Yen reached the most likely target for this Wave 4 near the 100 level and will probably break that level briefly before it can start moving towards 110 by July and probably test 115-120 by September. 		Click here for Chart
Click for Printable Chart
courtesy of StockCharts.com


The Loonie is parabolic and should exhaust in early June

 Click here for Chart
Click for Printable Chart
courtesy of StockCharts.com


The Canadian Dollar should pull back into September

The CDN Dollar broke through the trend lines near 0.88 ahead of the late June cycle high and will probably exhaust soon, maybe near the heavily congested 0.94 area, or even last September's high near 0.97 by June 22nd. 		Click here for Chart
Click for Printable Chart
courtesy of StockCharts.com

Bonds and Rates

The 30 year Bond should rebound in June

The 30 year Bond rebounded sharply from the 115 level and will most likely head to the 125 to 130 area into June.

Click for Printable Chart

courtesy of StockCharts.com


The 30 year Bond should decline into July

The 30 year Bond is losing support near 120 and could easily drop to the 112.50 level by July if it does not rebound soon as the short term cycles suggest will happen. 		Click here for Chart
Click for Printable Chart
courtesy of StockCharts.com


High Grade Corporate Bonds should pull back in June

 Click here for Chart
Click for Printable Chart
courtesy of StockCharts.com


High Grade Corporate Bonds should decline into year end

High-Grade Corporates are priced for perfection, and that is definitely not the current environment or even the one going forward, and the next crisis which is likely to be the upcoming GM bankruptcy will probably bring a dose of reality and take us down into the 80's. 		Click here for Chart
Click for Printable Chart
courtesy of StockCharts.com

Warning: include(ETF.php) [function.include]: failed to open stream: No such file or directory in E:\HTTP\AstroCycle.net\Jun5fm.php on line 500

Warning: include(ETF.php) [function.include]: failed to open stream: No such file or directory in E:\HTTP\AstroCycle.net\Jun5fm.php on line 500

Warning: include() [function.include]: Failed opening 'ETF.php' for inclusion (include_path='.;C:\php5\pear') in E:\HTTP\AstroCycle.net\Jun5fm.php on line 500