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1/9/09 - Equities, First week of January bearish
Live Intraday Charts
Most of the charts discussed here can be viewed intraday on my Public List at StockCharts.com Full Moon of January 10th should be a low
Full Moons are statistically lows and we closed near the lows into this Moon suggesting a rebound on Monday, but the typical behavior is for an even lower open the day after the Moon and the parallel channel near 880 or the 850 to 860 area would be support areas to watch for a rebound.
Click here for a Printable version of this Chart The Next Day BSI is 60% Bullish for Monday
I have built a composite chart of the four most accurate indicators of the next day direction of the SPX. All four indicators have accuracies that varies between 50 and 70% over any given month.
Click here for a Printable version of this Chart Outlook for Monday is bearish to mixed
All three indicators are above the middle line and trending in a bearish way, but are showing signs of turning and we may get a bounce from the Full moon before we decline some more and the next support levels are near 880 and 860. See the NDX minute chart here
Click here for a Printable version of this Chart Outlook for the week is bearish to mixed
The white Tick and blue Put/Call lines reached the middle line and are showing signs of turning near this Full Moon leaving us with a mixed picture and an unconfirmed bearish trend. We need to break support at 880 or 860 before the indicators cross the middle line and confirm a down trend to 820 or the November lows by the expected cycle low near the Inauguration. See the NDX 15 minute chart here
Click here for a Printable version of this Chart Outlook for January is overbought and bearish
The blue Put/Call line has turned bearish from very overbought and the white Tick line may be forming a double top pattern in early January and the last two in early September and November turned out to be very bearish. See the Nasdaq hourly chart here
Click here for a Printable version of this Chart Elliot Wave suggests we are completing a Minor Wave 4 top
I often use sentiment indicators like the Put/Call ratio to confirm price counts since they will only differ in the internal divisions and always match the price count at major turning points. From the October 07 high the blue Put/Call line has traced a clear 5 waves into the March 08 low to complete wave 1. The correction into the May 08 high completed wave 2, but the decline into the October 10th low only completed minor wave 3 of 3 and it appears minor wave 4 is complete or will be very shortly. The whole wave 4 correction in sentiment formed a common A-B-C-D-E with wave E dividing into a clear 5 waves back to exceed the May 08 overbought level. Wave 5 down should complete within a week or two of the 7 month cycle low of February 1st.
Click here for a Printable version of this Chart Ticks are bearish but at support
Both Ticks turned bearish but are at trend support and a break below would tend to confirm that the move up from November 21st is over.
Click here for a Printable version of this Chart The Put/Call ratio remains bearish
The Put/Call ratio is still bearish but showing signs of turning at a level where it has turned before in December and would break that trend if it keeps climbing.
Click here for a Printable version of this Chart The Volatility in a potential descending triangle
Both the VIX and QQV have completed 5 waves down and broken out of a possible ending diagonal triangle that could mark a significant change of trend if they continue higher. See the Nasdaq QQV chart here
Click here for a Printable version of this Chart The McClellans turned bearish
The McClellans oscillators turned bearish from overbought levels and will probably continue lower towards the January 14th cycle date.
Click here for a Printable version of this Chart Stocks above their 50 and 200 day MA are turning bearish
The percent of stocks above their 50 and 200 day MA are turning bearish from levels last seen in late August and will likely come down quite a bit.
Click here for a Printable version of this Chart Bonds
The 3 month yield is still showing a lot of fear near 0.1% and we need to see this rise significantly above 1.0% to signal a return to more normal credit conditions and the possibility of a lasting Equities rally.
Click here for a Printable version of this Chart 30 year Yield reaches resistance
The 30 year Yield reached the 3.2% resistance area near the January 7th cycle date and will probably pull back possibly deeply into the January 23rd Cardinal New Moon.
Click here for a Printable version of this Chart Bonds hold above strong supportBonds held above a number of converging support lines near 133 with PPO and StochRSI also reaching natural support levels suggesting a move higher into the expected cycle high of the Cardinal New Moon of January 26th.
Click here for a Printable version of this Chart Currencies
The US Dollar is struggling in the third move up from the December 17th low, but could reach the down trend line before turning down into the January 26th Cardinal New Moon cycle date.
Click here for a Printable version of this Chart The US Dollar makes a significant top
The rally in the USD has obviously ended this wave up from the March low and will likely resume its decline soon towards the expected 6.5/13 month PI cycle low near April 2nd.
Click here for a Printable version of this Chart The Yen is exhausting higher again
The Yen took off from support and is leaving gaps on the way up like on the last exhaustion moves in mid October and mid December and could extend this rally into the January 26th Cardinal New Moon cycle. This move up in the Yen is normally bearish for stocks as appetite for risk goes down with the carry trade as the Yen rallies.
Click here for a Printable version of this Chart The Loonie is struggling and overbought
The Canadian Dollar is struggling with resistance and could pull back from the overbought conditions before it can break higher and reach further targets.
Click here for a Printable version of this Chart Commodities
Commodities lost 20 year support near 240-250 and made a lower low with a higher PPO and StochRSI divergence suggesting we will probably test the 20 year resistance level near 250 or more by the February 6th cycle date.
Click here for a Printable version of this Chart CRB should rebound into 7 month cycle high
Commodities are very oversold after 6 months of continuous selling and will likely rebound to test the 20 year support/resistance level near 250 or even the 280 level by the next 7 month cycle high of February 6th.
Click here for a Printable version of this Chart Oil in potential Head and Shoulders
Oil pulled back to support after testing the key 50 level and has left a potential inverse Head and Shoulders pattern stronger StochRSI on the right side suggesting a move higher for the expected February 6th cycle high.
Click here for a Printable version of this Chart Oil near 5.5 and 11 month cycle lows
Oil is approaching the 5.5 month cycle low and will likely move up into the next cycle high of March 21st and a move back above the key 40 level would suggest it has already started.
Click here for a Printable version of this Chart Oil near 5 year cycle low
Oil fell hard to the 1990 and 2000 highs near 40 for the 5 year cycle low of December 08 and has raised doubts on how high the next rally can get for the 5 year cycle high of September 2010.
Click here for a Printable version of this Chart Gold is testing its 200 day MA and the 1980 high near 850
Gold continues to consolidate mostly above the 1980 high and 200 day MA near 850 and will probably continue a bit lower into the cycle date of January 23rd before it heads higher to finish Wave 1 near the February 6th cycle date.
Click here for a Printable version of this Chart Gold is headed for a May 2009 high
Gold will probably complete Wave 1 by the February 6th cycle high date and should pull back into March before heading higher in a powerful and most profitable Wave 3 into May 09.
Click here for a Printable version of this Chart Silver is overbought and struggling
Silver broke out with little follow through and is likely to continue testing the 10 level before heading higher for the February 6th cycle date.
Click here for a Printable version of this Chart Silver has greater potential into May 09
The correction in Silver was more severe than Gold and the potential for recovery profits are greater since Silver should reach at least the 14 level and probably more by the next 14 month cycle high in late May. The COT's are also showing a configuration seen near previous lows.
Click here for a Printable version of this Chart |
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