End of South Sea Bull Market

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Possible 93 to 104 year cycle

From the Tulip bubble of 1637 to the Mississippi bubble of 1720 there were 83 years. The next major high came 116 years later in 1836 leadin to the panic of 1837. It took 93 years before we saw the 1929 bubble, panic and depression into 1932. The bubble highs average out to 97 years which gives us an ideal high of 2026 and a range of 2012 to 2045 for the next high. The most likely high would be near 2020 to match 1720, 2029 to match 1929 or 2036-37 to match both 1637 and 1836. The typical decline after such a bubble is around 80% in modern times as seen after the Gold bubble (-82%), the Nikkei bubble (-82%), and the Nasdaq bubble (-78%). This would take the SPX back to 666, the Nasdaq back to 1500 and the Dow back to 5,000 in the 2020's or 2030's.

The Up/Down Volume suggests a 2018 high, 2020 low and 2021 high

One of the best known cycle in the US markets is the 4 year election cycle lows. It has worked most of the time going back 100 years or so. We can see from the chart of Up/Down volume that it can shorten to 3 years, 6 years and 7 year instead of the ideal 4 and 8 years. This cycle is most likely making a 4 year high near the overbought trend line from the 2007 high. This would suggest that we will see a 2019 to 2020 low that is to be followed by a 2021 to 2022 high.

The VIX suggests a high near 2018 or 2020

There was 13 years between the 1994 and 2007 lows in VIX (volatility premium) suggesting a low near 2020. There was also a Solar cycle 11 years between 1995 and 2007 giving pointing to a low near 2018. The highs in VIX were close to 6-7 years suggesting a 2022 high in VIX. While a high VIX does not guarantee low prices like we saw in 1999, it does eventually lead to lower prices like in 2002.

Cumulative Highs target a June 2018 high

If wave 5 is equal in time to Wave 1 (a common Elliott Wave relationship), this indicator suggests a high near June 2018 similar to the October 11, 2007 high.

Earnings Crash Targets a 2018 high

The inflation adjusted S&P500 earnings suggests that the 2008 financial crisis is in fact similar to the 1920-21 recession. This would suggest an end of this Bull Market close to 2018 or 9 years later like in 1929.

P/E Targets an S&P500 near 1,200

A return to the average Price/Earnings ratio of the last 120 years would take the S&P500 to 1,200. While a return to the minimum seen every 40 years would the S&P500 to 800.

Solar Bubbles target 2022

The Solar Cycle of 11 years tends to give us a bubble every 11 years. It was US Stocks in 1968, Gold in 1979, the Nikkei in 1989, US Stocks and others in 2000, Gold again in 2011 and the next Bubble should be the Nikkei which follows Stocks and Gold, or maybe Bonds in 2022.

Relative GDP targets 2018

The Total Market Value of the Wilshire 5000 divided by the GDP is now as overbought as it was at the 2000 highs, suggesting a turn down in 2018.