End of South Sea Bull Market

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Possible 93 to 104 year cycle

The first Bull Market after the South Sea and Mississipi bubbles was 116 years. The second Bull Market into 1929 lasted 93 years or 104 years on average. Using these numbers we come to a possible end of the Bull Market near 2022 to 2033. With margin of error, we could see a return to Dow 7,000 or even 1,000 in the 1920's or 1930's.

The VIX suggests a high near 2020

There was 13 years between the 1994 and 2007 lows in VIX (volatility premium) suggesting the next low near 2020. The highs in VIX were close to 6-7 years suggesting a 2022 high in VIX. While a high VIX does not guarantee low prices like we saw in 1999, it does eventually lead to lower prices like in 2002.

Cumulative Highs target late 2017

If wave 5 is equal in time to Wave 1 (a common Elliott Wave relationship), this indicator suggests a high near early October 2017 matching similar to the October 11, 2007 high.

Earnings Crash Targets 2018

The inflation adjusted S&P500 earnings suggests that the 2008 financial crisis is in fact similar to the 1920-21 recession. This would suggest an end of this Bull Market close to 2018 or 9 years later like in 1929.

P/E Targets S&P500 <= 1,200

A return to the average Price/Earnings ratio of the last 120 years would take the S&P500 to 1,200. While a return to the minimum seen every 40 years would the S&P500 to 800.

Solar Bubbles target 2022

The Solar Cycle of 11 years tends to give us a bubble every 11 years. It was US Stockd in 1968, Gold in 1979, the Nikkei in 1989, US Stocks and others in 2000, Gold again in 2011 and the next Bubble most likely in Bonds and/or Stock Markets in 2022.

GDP targets 2017-2018

The Total Market Value of the Wilshire 5000 divided by the GDP suggests we are months away from being as overbought as the 2000 highs.