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Sample AstroCycle Weekly Forecast
Summary for week of December 11, 2017

Last week the 4 day cycle was a perfect inversion with a high on Monday, low on Wednesday and probably a high near Friday. This happens from time to time, which makes it difficult to trade but it does validate that the market is still turning on a 4 day cycle. This week, this inverted cycle suggests a low near Monday, a high near Wednesday and a low near Friday. This would take us down a bit before a Fed meeting move up that does not last. Typically, moves before the Fed are small, but the moves after can be quite large and we may see quite a drop into Friday. We have bullish support near 2620 and the possibility of going to 2675 if we break above 2650, but the overbought Put/Calls make this unlikely and we will probably stay below 2650.

The VIX has turned up from the 3 week cycle low near November 30th, and appears to be inverting into a 3 week low near December 11th, giving us the possibility of an SPX decline into the mid-cycle and Winter solstice of the 21st, and/or into the next 3 week cycle of January 2nd. Typically we do move up into Christmas and down into the end of this year, so keep this in mind.

The McClellans and Stocks above their 50 and 200 day moving averages are turning bearish but not from very overbought. We can not rule out a rally into 2675 to 2690 for the Winter solstice and Christmas should we break above 2650.

The Cumulative New Highs are bullish at new highs, keeping the 2009 Bull market going. However, the Nasdaq New Highs and Aroon Oscillator are weakening making a decline of 10% to the 2,340 area by January possible.

5 min. lows on a 4 day cycle

The SPX has been making lows every 4 days suggesting a low near late Tuesday and a high near late Thursday. The Ticks are neutral to bearish but the Momentum indicators are bullish to neutral and it will take a move down below 2635 to turn bearish. With the last moves of 43, 39, 37 and 60 points we may have seen the blow-off high near 2665, but only a drop below 2605 would confirm a high. Such a move would probably not happen before the Fed meeting.

10 min. turned on an 11 day cycle

The SPX has been making many turns near an 11 day cycle suggesting a mid-December turn and probably a low. The Ticks and Momentum indicators are bearish to neutral and a break below 2620 will be needed to turn bearish. With pull backs of 20, 34, 40 and 52 points we are seeing increasing downside and we are overdue for a 70-100 point move down to 2600 or 2557. It would take a move below 2557 to suggest the beginning of a 10% correction to the 2400 area.

60 min. is near 90-100 pts move

With moves of 9.3%, 7.5%, 7.2% and 10.0% from the 1810 low the SPX is exceeding previous moves, but is within the 90-110 range of recent moves from the 2417 low. The Ticks and Momentum indicators are turning down from overbought, but a high close to the 5.5 week cycle of December 5th is quite possible. A move below 2620 and 2575 could send us to the 2557, 2544 or even the 2490 area by late December.

Daily may be headed for 2675-90

With moves of 301, 202, 317 and 335 from the February low of 1810 the SPX is now above the typical move higher from the 2322 low. As we approach a high, the Declines have been getting smaller with moves down of 14%, 10%, 10%, 4% and 3% and any decline larger than 2-3% to 2575-2600 would likely start a 10% correction possibly into the next 9.5 week cycle and winter solstice near December 20th to January 5th.

News of Interest

The one thing Robert Shiller says is preventing a 1929-like crash
"The market is about as highly priced as it was in 1929," said Shiller. "In 1929 from the peak to the bottom, it was 80 percent down. And the market really wasn't much higher than it is now in terms of my CAPE [cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings] ratio."

The Volatility Indexes

The VIX turned bullish into the 3 week cycle of December 11th but may be near a low near 9.5. The next turns should be near the Solstice of December 21st and/or the 3 week cycle of January 2nd.

Unemployment and Sentiment

The Continuing Claims turned neutral to bearish from the record lows of late October with the Michigan Sentiment turning bearish since early October and are suggesting a decline going forward.

Highs/Lows and Put/Calls

The Highs/Lows turned bearish in early December and the Put/Calls are low enough for a 3 week move down into the December 21st and/or January 10th cycle.

The Up/Down Volume

The Nasdaq Up/Down volume turned neutral from overbought, but need another move down to turn bearish and suggest a drop into the 9 week cycle of late December.

McClellan Indicators

The McClellans are turning neutral to bearish from the 7 week cycle of late November but need another move down to turn bearish into the next 3.5 week mid-cycle of the Winter solstice.

Cumulative Highs

The Cumulative New Highs are bullish to neutral with the Nasdaq stalling and the top Aroon Oscillator weak which could start a 10% decline to SPX 2,340 in December or January.

Gold and Silver

Gold and Silver are neutral to bearish and are probably headed for a 6 month cycle low near late December.

The 8 year cycle lows in Gold of 1985, 1993, 2001 and 2008 suggests that the 2016 low of 1045 will probably take Gold higher into the 40 year cycle of 1960, 1980, 2000 and 2020. Assuming the first move up from 253 to 1923 was a 760% Wave 1, the next move up from the 1045 low should take us to the 1045 x 7.6 = 7,942 or even to the 12,000-15,000 area.

US Dollar

The US Dollar is neutral to bullish past the 16 week cycle low of August 8th and has probably ended three waves down to 91.2 With 3 year lows in 2005, 2008, 2011, 2014 and possibly 2017, a late 2017 low could target a July 2019 high which is also the target of the 17 year cycle high. However, with moves of 12, 20 and 12 points from the 72.7 low, we may have seen the high and only see a rebound back to the 100 level in 2018 before a decline to the 77-80 area by December 2020.

Euro

The Euro is neutral to bearish turning down from the highs and will likely continue lower into early January.However, the 7.5 month cycle suggests the Euro could continue lower into March.

Yen

The Yen is neutral to bearish turning down from the 90 level and could continue lower into the next 1 month cycle of early January. The Yen is likely to hold support near 87 or 85 and head higher into the next 15 month cycle of late 2018. However, the Yen should make a lower low than 80 into the next 17 year cycle of 2019 and should not exceed the 95, 97 or 100 levels in this rebound.

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar is neutral to bearish and should head lower into the next 4 week cycle of late December. The Canadian Dollar should eventually make a 7.5 month cycle low near late December and head higher into the 7.5 month cycle high of mid-April or the mid-cycle of mid-February. It is likely to reach the 80, 88 or 94 area by May 2018 and/or late 2018.