Sample AstroCycle Weekly Forecast
Summary for week of November 13, 2017

We have a number of cycles coming this week and early next week. The SPX has a 4-5 day cycle near November 13th that should be a high. The VIX has a 3 week cycle near November 16th that should be a low. The SPX has an 11 day cycle that has given us mostly highs near November the 22nd. The Highs/Lows ratio has a 7 week cycle near November 22nd that could be a High or a Low. The New Moon of November 18th statistically gives highs near November 20th. All of these cycles suggest a high on Monday, a low on Thursday and a high next Wednesday.

The VIX turned up from near record lows and the 31 point decline opens up the possibility of a 73 point decline like we saw from the July 26th record low. Back then we saw a 63 point drop, 37 point rebound and 57 point drop, but we are not as bearish now with a 31 point drop and 20 point rebound so far.

The New Highs, McClellans and Stocks above 50 and 200 day moving averages are still bearish. However, the Up/Down volume is bullish but overbought, and the Put/Calls are mixed and no longer very overbought.

The Cumulative New Highs are struggling but still rising which is bullish. However, the Aroon Oscillator has turned down as we passed the possible 21 month high of November 6th increasing the odds of a 10% drop to the 2,340 area this year.

5 min. is near a 4-5 day cycle

The SPX has been making 4-5 day cycle turns with previous ones being a Low-Low-High-High suggesting a 4-5 day high on Monday the 13th that leads to an ideal low near Thursday the 16th. The alternative is a low on Monday that sends us towards 2620 in a choppy way by Friday.

10 min. is past an 11 day cycle

The SPX has been making highs every 11 days suggesting an ideal mid-cycle decline into Tuesday or Wednesday the 14-15th. The indicators are bearish but turning up a bit and lately the drops have been short lived which raises the possibility of reaching 2620 by the next 11 day cycle of November 22nd.

60 min. is turning from channel

With moves of 9.3%, 7.5%, 7.2% and 7.4% from the 1810 low the SPX must continue lower to keep the decreasing series intact. The StochRSI and Momentum have now turned bearish but unless we break below 2544 to suggest a 10% multi-week decline to 2340, a break above 2590 would most likely send us to the 2620 area before such a large decline can happen.

Daily may be headed for 2620

With moves of 301, 202, 317 and 275 from the February low of 1810 the SPX may be headed for a 300 point move to the 2622 area. As we approach a high, the Declines have been getting smaller with 14%, 10%, 10%, 4% and 3% and any decline larger than 2-3% (2520-45) would likely start a 10% correction possibly into the next 9.5 week cycle of December 20th.

News of Interest

The one thing Robert Shiller says is preventing a 1929-like crash
"The market is about as highly priced as it was in 1929," said Shiller. "In 1929 from the peak to the bottom, it was 80 percent down. And the market really wasn't much higher than it is now in terms of my CAPE [cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings] ratio."

The Volatility Indexes

The VIX is at the bearish line near 11.3 and any move higher would probably send the VIX towards a 3 week November 16th cycle high and SPX low.

Unemployment and Sentiment

The Continuing Claims and Michigan Sentiment are turning bearish from extreme levels where a lasting reversal becomes likely. However, we are at least a week or two from a confirmed bearish signal.

Highs/Lows and Put/Calls

The Highs/Lows are bearish with lower highs since October but the Put/Calls are mixed and no longer very overbought. However, we could be heading for a 7 week November 22nd cycle SPX low.

The Up/Down Volume

The 90 day Nasdaq Up/Down volume is bullish but getting overbought. The 15 day Up/Down remains bearish and the Nasdaq 10 day Trin suggest a 75% chance of a 50-70 point decline.

McClellan Indicators

The McClellan Summations are bearish like in early March and early August suggesting a 50 point decline, possibly into the 3.5 week cycle of November 14th.

Cumulative Highs

The Cumulative New Highs are bullish but the top Aroon is turning down near the 21 month cycle of November 6th which could start a 10% decline to SPX 2,340.

Gold and Silver

Gold and Silver are neutral and probably saw an 8 week cycle low in early November. However, Gold and Silver may not resume their move upwards in a strong way until the 6 month cycle of January 2018.

The 8 year cycle lows in Gold of 1985, 1993, 2001 and 2008 suggests that the 2016 low of 1045 will probably take Gold higher into the 40 year cycle of 1960, 1980, 2000 and 2020. Assuming the first move up from 253 to 1923 was a 760% Wave 1, the next move up from the 1045 low should take us to the 1045 x 7.6 = 7,942 or even to the 12,000-15,000 area.

US Dollar

The US Dollar turned bullish past the 16 week cycle low of August 8th and has probably ended three waves down to 91.2 With 3 year lows in 2005, 2008, 2011, 2014 and possibly 2017, a late 2017 low could target a July 2019 high which is also the target of the 17 year cycle high. However, with moves of 12, 20 and 12 points from the 72.7 low, we may have seen the high and only see a rebound back to the 100 level in 2018 before a decline to the 77-80 area by December 2020.

Euro

The Euro turned bearish after exceeding its May 2016 high of 1.16 by 2 and 4%, and should decline to the 115-116 area probably after the 4 week cycle of September 18th and/or the 3 month cycle of late September. It should then rebound higher from a mid-November low but decline once more into the next cycle of early January 2018.

Yen

The Yen is turning neutral from the 4 week cycle of early November, and should reach the 89 area by the next 4 week cycle of early December. The Yen should make a lower low than 80 into the next 17 year cycle of 2019 and should not exceed the 95-97 and 100 levels in this rebound.

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar is turning neutral from the 4 week cycle of November 1st and/or the 3 month cycle of November 14th. The Canadian Dollar should then head higher once more and may even reach the 88 or even the 94 area by the next 3 month cycle of mid-February 2018 and/or the 8 year cycle high of January 2018.